The latest box office projections for Jurassic World Rebirth indicate the film could break a major box office record during its extended opening over Independence Day. According to Deadline, the film is currently estimated to gross $260 million globally in its debut, with around $120-130 million of that coming from the United States. If Rebirth hits the high end of these projections, it would score the biggest Fourth of July weekend opening of all time. The current record is held by Minions: The Rise of Gru, which earned $123 million domestically over four days when it premiered on Friday, July 1, 2022. Rebirth is going for a five-day extended opening frame, as it opens on Wednesday, July 2nd.
The low end of the Jurassic World Rebirth projections would still be good enough for the second-highest Fourth of July opening. 2011’s Transformers: Dark of the Moon debuted with $115.88 million domestically, while 2004’s Spider-Man 2 opened to $115.81 million.
These updated Jurassic World projections aren’t much of a difference from the figures reported a few weeks back. In June, the five-day estimates stood at $120-125 million domestically. Since that time, early reactions and reviews for Rebirth have been published. While the film isn’t a critical darling (53% score on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing), it’s seen as a step up from previous Jurassic World installments, harkening back to the spirit of the original Jurassic Park.
Jurassic World Rebirth is kicking off what should be a busy month at the multiplex. The coming weeks will see the premieres of two massive comic book adaptations: Superman and The Fantastic Four: First Steps. Both superhero films should prove to be box office draws. Superman is currently projected to gross around $135 million domestically when it opens next week.
Even if Jurassic World Rebirth hits $130 million domestically in its first five days, that figure would be the lowest start among the four Jurassic World movies. However, there’s little reason for concern. For starters, prospective viewers could be busy over the long holiday weekend and simply not have time to go to the theater. They can catch Rebirth after the Fourth of July festivities. Rebirth is also budgeted at around $180 million before marketing costs, making it cheaper than some of its direct predecessors. Universal would obviously be very happy if the film breaks a holiday weekend record during its opening. And if it earns $260 million worldwide, Jurassic World Rebirth will have already recouped production costs, putting it on the path to profitability.
The first three Jurassic World movies each grossed $1 billion globally, so it’ll be interesting to see if Rebirth can reach that mark. While it’s poised to get off to a strong start, it will need decent legs at the box office in order to cross the $1 billion plateau. With Superman and Fantastic Four out soon, Jurassic World is going to face stiff competition after it opens. The arrivals of other high-profile blockbusters will certainly eat into Jurassic World‘s business. The good news is that $1 billion is not a requirement for Rebirth to go down as a success. There should be plenty of space for all of July’s tentpoles to enjoy their time in the spotlight and turn a profit.
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