Early box office projections for Jurassic World Rebirth indicate the film will have the lowest opening weekend of the four Jurassic World movies, but there’s reason to be optimistic about its long-term prospects. According to The Hollywood Reporter, the tentpole is currently tracking to gross somewhere between $120-125 million domestically over its first five days. The outlet notes that distributor Universal Pictures has set much more conservative estimates right now ($90-100 million was listed as a ballpark figure). Either way, Jurassic World Rebirth‘s debut is shaping up to be a far cry from the previous three Jurassic World movies released from 2015-2022.
The first Jurassic World broke records with a $208.8 million domestic opening. In 2018, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom grossed $148 million in its debut. Jurassic World: Dominion made $145 million when it opened three summers ago. It is worth mentioning that Jurassic World Rebirth is projected to open much higher than the original three Jurassic Park films. The highest of that initial trio was the $72.1 million posted by The Lost World: Jurassic Park. So, Rebirth is a low specifically for the Jurassic World series and not the overall franchise.
Directed by Gareth Edwards, Jurassic World Rebirth is set to open on July 2nd, making it the big blockbuster debuting over Fourth of July weekend. Universal has unsurprisingly put together a substantial marketing campaign for the film, which included a Super Bowl spot that aired earlier this year. A key aspect of promotional materials is selling audiences on the tone and feel of the original Jurassic Park as Edwards looks to tap into what made that movie so special.
Universal is hoping Jurassic World Rebirth can be just one of their box office successes this summer. The studio’s live-action How to Train Your Dragon remake is projected to break franchise records during its opening weekend, setting the stage for a lucrative run.
The good news for Jurassic World Rebirth is that its reported production budget ($180 million before marketing costs) is significantly smaller than its direct predecessors. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom cost a whopping $432 million to make, while Jurassic World Dominion cost $265 million. Both of those titles grossed over $1 billion, but there’s no guarantee a film is going to gross that much money worldwide. Universal was smart to trim down costs this time around. It means Jurassic World Rebirth doesn’t need to break records in order to turn a profit. Given how popular the Jurassic Park franchise is, it seems likely Rebirth will go down as a hit — even as it plays in a crowded month that also sees the debuts of Superman and The Fantastic Four: First Steps.
Still, it’s a little alarming that $120-125 million is the estimated range for Rebirth‘s first five days. The previous three Jurassic World movies all opened on a Friday and posted their larger openings over traditional three-day weekends. That said, these are just initial projections. Things could fluctuate over the next few weeks, especially if word of mouth is strong. It’s also important to keep in mind Rebirth is opening over a busy holiday weekend, meaning some people might wait to see it until after the Independence Day festivities. Keeping in mind the lower budget, Universal has no reason to fret about Rebirth‘s box office potential. It’s Fandango’s most anticipated film of the summer, so viewers are excited to see Scarlett Johansson and Mahershala Ali take on dinosaurs.
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