Despite earning positive reviews, opening weekend projections for Thunderbolts* haven’t improved much, but there are reasons to be optimistic about the Marvel film’s long-term box office prospects. According to Deadline, Thunderbolts* is estimated to earn somewhere between $73-77 million domestically over its first three days. By Marvel standards, that’s a soft debut. Even the high end of the projections are below the three-day start for Captain America: Brave New World ($88.8 million) and the pandemic-era premiere of Black Widow ($80.3 million). The low end trails Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75.3 million) and is only slightly better than Eternals ($71.2 million).
However, there are signs that Thunderbolts* won’t go down as another box office disappointment for the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Word of mouth for the film is much stronger than February’s Captain America: Brave New World. Thunderbolts* enjoyed an A- CinemaScore from audiences (compared to a B- for Brave New World), meaning there’s a good chance Thunderbolts* will have stronger legs at the box office. The Rotten Tomatoes score is also very high.
In the weeks leading up to its debut, Thunderbolts* was never pegged to be a massive box office hit. Initial projections posted in April set the range between $63-77 million, with $70 million considered the “target number.” Other recent titles exceeded projections at the box office (A Minecraft Movie, Sinners), but Thunderbolts* essentially performed in line with the expectations.
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As the film kicking off the summer movie season, Marvel has a lot riding on Thunderbolts*. Not only is it a vastly important chapter in the build up to next year’s Avengers: Doomsday, but the studio is also looking to rebound from Captain America: Brave New World. That film earned mixed reviews and ended its run as one of the lowest-grossing MCU films to date.
Marvel and Disney were probably hoping for a stronger start for Thunderbolts*, but the real test will come over the next two weeks. Brave New World is considered a disappointment because its grosses rapidly declined from its second weekend onward, a byproduct of the film’s reception. Thunderbolts* is in a better position to thrive because it’s considered a much better film. Those who didn’t rush out to see it on opening weekend could be inclined to check it out later in the month because of the positive response. Thunderbolts* also isn’t facing much competition over the next couple of weeks; it has a clear runway until Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning and Lilo & Stitch combine to possibly break Memorial Day records.
It’ll be interesting to see how Thunderbolts* holds in its second weekend. If it doesn’t have a sizable drop-off (a la Brave New World‘s 68.3%), then it should be in decent shape to be a moderate success. If, for whatever reason, the word of mouth doesn’t have a positive impact and Thunderbolts* seeks a stark decline, it’ll raise some uncomfortable questions about the MCU’s future going into Avengers: Doomsday and Secret Wars. Hopefully, Thunderbolts* emerges as the rebound Marvel needs and quickly turns a profit.
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